Most of the consultants agree that, with the December data that INDEC will release next Thursday, which will be closer to 5 than 6 percent, everything indicates that finally inflation for 2022 will close at around 95%, below of the ominous hundred that the projections spoke of months ago.
In any case, it is not a data to celebrate: it is the highest figure since 1990, after the exit of the hypermarket, and economists warn that last year will leave a very significant inertial inflation for 2023, which will maintain the cost of living at elevated levels. In fact, the fearsome annualized 100 percent may be reached by the end of January or February.
The Government, with the endorsement of the IMF in its reviews, forecasts an annual figure of 60% for 2023, but private consultants once again insist with the risk of one hundred. Minister Sergio Massa, for his part, was confident that the figure for April would be three percent.
For December, analysts agree that the figure will be around 5%, after the 4.9% registered in November, confirming the trend of moving away from the spectrum of the six that shook previous months. With this figure, the possibility that the annual figure is around 95% is strengthened, after the 85.3% accumulated until November.
Sources from the Ministry of the Economy had already anticipated that they expect inflation in December “similar” to November 4.9, and stressed that the data is more significant if one takes into account that the last month of the year is usually one of significant increases for a overheating of consumption linked to the holidays.
“December will most likely show us a second month of moderation in inflationary records, leaving the 6% area a little behind to be closer to 5%. This is how 2022 ends with inflation around 95%. Clearly the records are auspicious, but they show that the level is still extremely high,” said Santiago Manoukian, economist at Ecolatina, in journalistic statements.
For Ecolatina, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that will be reported by INDEC in the coming days will be 4.6%. The consultant measured prices in Greater Buenos Aires and the monthly figure gave them 4.3%, with the warning that at the national level it could possibly climb to 5. In the suburbs, Ecolatina increased increases in food and beverages of 3.5 with generalized increases, except in the vegetable category. And it calculates an annual figure of 95.7%.
The economist Gabriel Caamaño, from Consultora Ledesma, was one of the few who maintained that its relevance gives it closer to 6, 5.8%, for December, although they agree that 2022 will close for all of 2022, the number that delivered is “around 95%. The worst year ended even with the worst forecasts that spoke of 70%, although it ended better when in July we were about to enter another crisis. It ends up hitting the three-digit stick, ”he commented in radio statements.
Projections give the consulting firm PxQ, from Emanuel Álvarez Agis, 5% for December, with significant increases in sectors such as recreation, restaurants and hotels, communication and health, with a relatively slight rise in food, “barely” a 2.7% The annual figure is calculated at 94.5%.
Another of the consultants, EcoGo, projected a price increase of 5%, with the salvation that they measured only the first two weeks, the “hottest” for consumption, and detected food inflation of 4.7%.
Complicated panorama. The new year promises to add inflationary pressures to the “drag” left by 2022. Fuel prices will rise again during the second half of January.
In just a few weeks, fuel will have its first increase of the year, of 4%. What will happen this year with the prices of the suppliers, before an expansion that will increase high?
By 2023, the variation in pumps will be related to the Consumer Price Index, the international price of fuels and the evolution of the official exchange rate, but also with the elections, according to specialist estimates.
The oil companies will use the first increase of the year and it will be equivalent to 4%, in line with what was agreed with the national government. What was agreed responds to the official Fair Prices program, through which caps on increases were set for the coming months. This new control policy aims to contain inflation that was approximately 90% in 2022, and that in 2023 it would be 60% for the Government and the IMF, but almost 100% for analysts who consult the Central Bank.
Sources from the business sector indicated that the increases in fuel were not only behind the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but also for products in the basic basket.
“For 2023 we start with a high inflation floor that leaves the last quarter of last year, around 5.5% per month. And we see that the moderation of the exchange rate crawling peg together with a high set of price agreements that have been closed recently with Fair Prices at the forefront, medicines, textiles and supplies disseminated, among others, with the aim of curbing inertia and hanging downward expectations may contribute to a slow trend towards nominality moderation in the coming months,” said Manoukian, from Ecolatina.
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